Bulgaria is returning to choose its representatives for the seventh time in three years. Society’s fatigue with the political crisis is enormous, as is its disappointment with systemic political parties. Therefore, it is expected that these elections will be held with a historically low turnout, likely marked by a strong but fragmented protest vote, alongside a sense of increased control and corruption among voters. Unfortunately, breaking this vicious circle requires the opposite: a mass vote supporting legitimate policies and neutralizing political noise, populism, and opportunism that hinder Bulgaria.

Sociological projections clearly indicate that there will again be a “big winner” in the elections, but forming a government, as in the past, will be a more than complicated task, and possible formulas are already running out. The main intrigues of the elections revolve around which faction of the DPS will succeed and how many parties will manage to overcome the 4% threshold to enter Parliament. Sociologists do not rule out that low turnout and a protest vote could lead to the creation, perhaps, of the most diverse parliament in recent Bulgarian history.

According to projections at 1:00 PM, nine parties are surpassing the 4% threshold. According to one poll, two of the smaller parties might also enter Parliament. However, it is too early to draw definitive conclusions, and most other polls support the hypothesis of seven + one formation.

Voter participation is slightly higher than in the June elections, according to data from “Gallup International.” At 1:00 PM, turnout was 17.4%. In the previous elections, at this point, it was 15.6%. So, there is a slight increase, but compared to the previous elections in April 2023 and October 2022, activity is nearly at the same level.

Among voters, those with higher education and elderly residents of small towns stand out. The dynamics of refusals to participate in the polls remain at the same level as in previous elections, noted Petko Petkov, executive director of the polling company. It is too early to talk about possible surprises. Trends will likely reveal themselves later in the evening.

According to data from the Central Election Commission, by 11:00 AM, participation was at 9.55% — slightly higher than in previous elections (8.3%). The highest activity was recorded in Montana — 14.44%, while the lowest was in Varna — 5.25%. In the previous elections, at this time, activity was slightly lower — 8.34%, with the highest participation in Montana — 12.67%, and the lowest in one of the districts of Sofia — 5.44%.

Voting in Turkey is happening with high participation in Bursa and low in Istanbul. According to the data, at noon, the highest activity was observed in the polling stations in Bursa, where between 120,000 and 130,000 emigrants live. Voters are casting ballots in 49 polling stations. Information about the high activity comes amidst claims that the city’s mayor, Mustafa Bozbay, has encouraged voters to vote for a specific political force.

At the same time, activity among emigrants in Istanbul is significantly lower. In two polling stations in the Avcılar district of Istanbul, only 129 and 130 people had voted by 12:00 PM local time. Approximately 100,000 Bulgarian emigrants who have the right to vote reside in Istanbul across 51 polling stations. In Lüleburgaz, tensions arose between representatives of two groups at the school where voting was taking place, but everything was resolved quickly after the intervention of local authorities.

According to survey data, by noon, seven parties could enter Parliament. There is an official ban on publishing sociological predictions regarding poll results during elections, but traditionally various media outlets share such data on social media. The first unofficial data is available on the YouTube channel “Dnevnik” and in the Viber bot of the publication. They do not represent a significant surprise in the composition of the parties, and the current leader now has an even more significant advantage.

The difference between second and third place is about 3%. So far, according to survey data, seven parties could enter the next parliament. Data from sociological agencies show a slight difference between the fourth and fifth participants. One of the smaller parties is very close to the 4% threshold.

Kirill Petkov, co-chairman of “We Continue to Change – Democratic Bulgaria,” confirmed the coalition’s intention to form a stable government with a centrist prime minister. After voting at a school in the capital, he stated that this is “the only feasible formula at the moment.” Atanas Atanasov, his colleague and co-chairman of the coalition, also expressed the opinion that “there is a possibility to create a government.” Like Petkov, he stated that the formations would not stray from the idea of “a centrist prime minister.”

Boyko Borissov, leader of GERB, voted in Bankya with a paper ballot. Later, he explained that he preferred this option because “the machines often jam.”