German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is seeking a vote of confidence, which he is expected to lose. Does such a move work as a path to restore political stability?
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is seeking a vote of confidence in the lower house of Parliament, the Bundestag, which he is expected to lose, triggering an early general election.
Scholz’s three-way center-left government broke apart on November 6, paving the way for an early federal election expected on February 23, 2025.
Early elections have been extremely rare in Germany, but they are a vital democratic measure. They are regulated by the German constitution and require the approval of several constitutional bodies, not least of the head of state, the president.
Two possible scenarios
According to the German constitution, a decision to hold an early federal election cannot be made by the members of the Bundestag, nor by the chancellor. An early dissolution of parliament can only come about in one of two ways.
In the first case, if a candidate for chancellor does not win an absolute parliamentary majority — at least 367 votes in the 733-seat Bundestag — the German president can dissolve the parliament. This has never happened in the history of the Federal Republic of Germany.
In the second case, a chancellor can call for a vote of confidence in the Bundestag to confirm whether he or she still has sufficient parliamentary support. If the chancellor fails to win a majority, he or she can formally ask the president to dissolve the Bundestag within 21 days.
Following the dissolution of parliament, an election must be held within 60 days. They are organized in the same way as normal general elections, with the federal returning officer and the Federal Interior Ministry responsible for their implementation.
Three early Bundestag elections have been held to date in the Federal Republic of Germany: in 1972, 1983 and 2005.
Willy Brandt
Willy Brandt, the first chancellor from the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD), governed in a coalition with the neoliberal Free Democratic Party (FDP) beginning in 1969. His “Ostpolitik” (politics toward the East) led to a vote of confidence in 1972.
Brandt had pushed ahead with his policy of rapprochement during the Cold War to ease relations with the socialist Eastern European bloc, a highly controversial move in West Germany. Major splits emerged within the government, causing several SPD and FDP Bundestag lawmakers to quit. The government’s majority was dramatically reduced, and Brandt’s support fell to parity with the opposition conservatives, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the regional Bavarian Christian Socialist Union (CSU): each side had 248 representatives in the Bundestag.
That stalemate paralyzed proceedings, so Brandt sought a solution. On June 24, 1972, he stated that “the citizens” had a “right to ensure that legislation does not come to a standstill.” He also said there was a growing danger “that the opposition will fundamentally refuse to cooperate constructively. Therefore, I am announcing that we are seeking new elections.”
Brandt called for a vote of confidence in the Bundestag with the aim of losing it, so that his chancellorship could be reconfirmed by voters in fresh elections. This move was fiercely criticized, also by constitutional lawyers who argued that deliberately losing a vote of confidence was not consistent with the spirit of the constitution, the Basic Law.
Brandt stuck to his plan and called a vote of confidence on September 20, 1972 — and lost, as he had planned. That set the path for the Bundestag’s dissolution and a new election, which was held on November 19, 1972.
Brandt was reelected as chancellor, and the SPD received 45.8% of the vote — its best result to date. Voter turnout was the highest ever for a Bundestag election, at 91.1%.
Helmut Kohl
Helmut Kohl, of the CDU, was responsible for the second early Bundestag election, in 1983. Kohl assumed power following a constructive vote of confidence in the then Chancellor Helmut Schmidt (SPD), in October 1982. The majority of parliamentarians had withdrawn their confidence in Schmidt due to differences over his economic and security policy.
Because Kohl’s coalition of the CDU/CSU and FDP came to power through a vote of confidence and not a general election, Kohl wished for additional legitimacy through a general election. He called for a vote of confidence, which he, too, deliberately lost on December 17, 1982, resulting in the dissolution of the Bundestag. Kohl said at the time, “I opened the way to new elections in order to stabilize the government and obtain a clear majority in the Bundestag.”
Some Bundestag members found that unacceptable and filed a complaint with the Federal Constitutional Court. After 41 days of hearings, the Karlsruhe judges approved Kohl’s path to a new election by a deliberate vote of no confidence. However, they emphasized that a vote of confidence was only permissible during a “genuine” crisis.
The subsequent election held on March 6, 1983, confirmed Kohl as chancellor, and his government was able to carry on with a clear majority.
Gerhard Schröder
The SPD’s Gerhard Schröder initiated Germany’s third early election in 2005. He was chancellor at the time, heading a coalition with the Greens.
The SPD was struggling after a series of state election defeats and declining support in the Bundestag. The dwindling support was mostly due to Schröder’s controversial Agenda 2010 reforms, which had drastically changed the social system and the labor market. Schröder called for a vote of confidence, which he deliberately lost on July 1, 2005, thus triggering a new election.
“I am firmly convinced that the majority of Germans want me to continue along this path. But I can only gain the necessary clarity only through a new election,” Schröder said after the vote.
But his calculation went afoul. The early election, held on September 18, 2005, gave Angela Merkel’s CDU/CSU a narrow majority. She became chancellor, heading a CDU/CSU-led coalition supported by the SPD. That was the start of 16 years in office for Merkel.
