PARIS – Emmanuel Macron will host German Chancellor Friedrich Merz on the Riviera on Thursday evening, hoping support from Berlin can bolster his standing in the EU as the French government edges towards collapse, reports 24brussels.
Macron is set to welcome Merz at his summer residence, the Fort of Brégançon, prior to their joint appearance in Toulon on Friday for the 25th Franco-German ministerial council.
This meeting provides the Élysée with an opportunity to reaffirm the revitalization of relations between Paris and Berlin.
Macron and Merz have increased their bilateral engagements recently, with significant groundwork established since the German government formed on 6 May, as stated by Paul Maurice, secretary general of the Franco-German Relations Study Committee (Cerfa).
Key areas of alignment include the EU’s “economic rearmament,” enhancing competitiveness, investments in AI and space, and Franco-German support for Ukraine. Macron must increasingly rely on Merz to ensure France maintains a prominent voice within the EU.
However, longstanding tensions persist. Berlin supports the EU’s trade agreement with Mercosur, a stance that Paris contests, and it is unlikely that Merz will moderate Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s push for ratification.
Major defense initiatives, such as the Future Combat Air System (FCAS) fighter jet, continue to stoke rivalry between Dassault and Germany’s Airbus.
The two leaders have previously disagreed during trade discussions with Donald Trump. While Merz welcomed the 15% tariffs agreed by Von der Leyen with Washington, Macron advocated for a more rigorous stance and lamented the EU’s failure to be sufficiently “feared.”
“On European matters, the Germans drive a hard bargain, and just because they get on well with Macron doesn’t mean they’ll hand him any favours,” remarked Michel Duclos, a former French ambassador and current special adviser at the Institut Montaigne in Paris.
Despite these challenges, a display of amicable relations between Paris and Berlin could help preempt sticking points and delineate “red lines,” according to Maurice.
The shadow of dissolution
Friday’s working groups will involve around 20 ministers, with Macron’s cabinet promising “concrete projects.” However, the pressing concern is whether these initiatives will survive the upcoming confidence vote for Bayrou’s government on 8 September.
The last Franco-German meeting, conducted in May 2024, occurred mere weeks before Macron dissolved parliament and called for snap elections following his party’s dismal performance in European elections.
With another electoral cycle approaching, Berlin is closely monitoring potential shifts in the French government, particularly if the far-right National Rally (RN) gains considerable ground, as noted by Maurice.
Germany is also apprehensive about France’s public finances, which are already precarious and susceptible to further political disturbances. Following Bayrou’s announcement on Monday, the spread between French and German Bunds, the eurozone benchmark, has widened by 7.6 basis points.
Some analysts are cautioning that “France could become a destabilizing factor for the European economy,” warned Thierry Chopin, visiting professor at the College of Europe.
For Macron, the message is clear: in the coming weeks, potential challenges could emerge from multiple fronts.
