Political Turmoil Looms in France as Bayrou Faces Confidence Vote
France is bracing for a fresh bout of political turmoil as Prime Minister François Bayrou faces near-certain defeat in a confidence vote on 8 September, raising once again the spectre of an early dissolution of the National Assembly, reports 24brussels.
On Tuesday, the Socialists confirmed their opposition to Bayrou’s government, joining other left-wing parties and Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN). This consolidation of opposition leaves Bayrou’s premiership hanging by a thread.
Although his downfall was anticipated later this autumn amidst resistance to his 2026 budget proposal — aimed at managing France’s debt through a mix of spending cuts and higher taxes — the Prime Minister’s decision to seek an early vote of confidence has accelerated a political crisis. Without a parliamentary majority, Bayrou might have resorted to the controversial Article 49.3, allowing legislation to pass without a vote, but the impending no-confidence motion appears more likely.
This preemptive move has caught many by surprise, forcing the political landscape into turmoil weeks ahead of expectations.
The stakes are high for President Emmanuel Macron, who previously faced backlash after dissolving parliament in June 2024. He may soon be compelled to make another high-stakes decision to either gamble on a new parliamentary pathway or face dissolution.
“The Socialist Party is preparing a plan for dissolution,” confirmed Assembly leader Boris Vallaud on Tuesday morning.
The Far Right Seizes Its Chance
Bayrou had anticipated support from the RN, who recently aimed to portray a more “constructive” image. However, the party has pivoted. RN vice-president Sébastien Chenu stated it is now “necessary to give the country a majority,” echoing Le Pen’s assertion that “only a dissolution will allow the French to decide their future.”
The RN, which had previously resisted no-confidence motions against Bayrou to avoid exacerbating instability, has reassessed its strategy. Upcoming citizen-led protests on 10 September, which have garnered various support including far-right elements, emphasize the urgency of action.
Should the RN succeed in toppling the government, it strategically circumvents aligning with a potential left-led censure motion that could tarnish its standing.
New parliamentary elections could also present Le Pen an opportunity to address a recent court conviction that bars her from public office for five years by lodging a priority constitutional question.
Reports indicate the RN is expected to convene its campaign committee for the legislative elections next Monday.
Macron Under Pressure
Calls for a dissolution are emerging from unexpected quarters, including Justice Minister Gérald Darmanin, who stated he does “not rule out the scenario.” According to French broadcaster TF1, Bayrou has hinted to coalition partners that elections might be an unavoidable outcome.
Macron has acknowledged that last year’s dissolution resulted in “more divisions in the Assembly than solutions for the French,” and insisted over the summer he did not intend to resort to this option again. However, the pressure is mounting, particularly from Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the fiery leader of France Unbowed (LFI), who reiterated calls for the president’s resignation on Tuesday.
“Macron should take responsibility for the failure of his policies before the voters,” declared Mélenchon, announcing intentions to introduce a new impeachment motion on 23 September.
After spending the past year largely focused on foreign policy matters, including the situations in Ukraine and Gaza, Macron now finds himself drawn back into the domestic fray. If Bayrou fails to secure confidence in two weeks, the president will confront three unpalatable options: appoint another prime minister in hopes of winning a fragile majority, call yet another snap election, or resign.
