Researchers said they have noticed a particularly sharp downward trend in eastern Germany. A new report estimates almost 80,000 fewer children were born in 2022 and 2023 than would have been expected.
The Ifo Institute for Economic Research said in a new report released Wednesday that Germany is seeing a sharp decline in birth rates, with federal states in the east of the country the most affected.
Researchers at the leading economic think tank cited a number of reasons behind the declining birth rate, including the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine.
Additionally, high inflation has prompted “young families to put off having children for the time being,” said Ifo researcher Joachim Ragnitz.
Declining birth rates
“Overall, almost 80,000 fewer children were born in 2022 and 2023 than would have been expected,” Ragnitz said.
Ragnitz is an expert on demographic change who studied the trend in eastern Germany. He said that the birth rate “changed massively in the past three years.”
The brith rate, or the average number of children that are born to a woman over her lifetime, has dropped from 1.58 children per woman in 2021 to 1.35 currently.
A disproportionate decline in birth rate in eastern Germany
In 2023, 693,000 children were born, which is almost 13% less than children born in 2021.
The study saw a disproportionate decline in birth rate, 17.5%, in eastern German states.
Researchers stated that it was impossible to know whether the changes were permanent or temporary changes in family planning.
“Politicians would be well advised to monitor these developments more closely, also in order to avoid possible wrong decisions when expanding daycare and schooling,” Ragnitz said.
In the years from 2011 to 2016, Germany’s fertility rate rose from 1.39 to 1.59 due to better overall conditions for families with children and immigration.
In the western German states, 32.9% of the population have a migrant background — which means that they have either immigrated themselves or come from immigrant families. The figure is 11.4% in eastern states.
