Russia’s Summer Offensive Deadliest Yet, Analysts Claim
The ongoing Russian summer offensive is reported to be the deadliest for Russian forces since the onset of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, according to an analysis published by The Economist. The publication noted that at the current rate, it would take Russia nearly a century to fully conquer Ukraine.
There are no official figures on casualties for either Ukrainian or Russian forces; however, insights can be drawn from ongoing conflict monitoring. Satellite data and shifts in control zones indicate a significant intensification of combat activity, correlating with over 200 casualty assessments from Western governments and independent researchers, the report stated.
As of July 9, estimates suggest Russian military losses range between 900,000 and 1.3 million personnel since the beginning of the large-scale war, with approximately 190,000 to 350,000 fatalities. The Economist estimates that around 31,000 Russian soldiers may have perished during the current summer offensive.
In contrast, the report emphasized that assessing Ukrainian military losses has proven challenging due to a lack of comprehensive data. Based on lists of known casualties and missing persons, The Economist suggested that between 73,000 and 140,000 Ukrainian defenders might have died throughout the full-scale war.
Journalists attribute the rising number of Russian fatalities to ground combat operations. Current satellite data indicates that the pace of Russian troop advancement is one of the fastest in the past two years. Despite this, the ongoing offensive still achieves only about 15 square kilometers per day. Over the past year, occupiers took merely 0.038 square kilometers for every dead soldier.
The publication indicated that even at the accelerated pace observed in the last 30 days, it would take approximately 89 years for Russia to conquer all of Ukraine. Capturing unoccupied areas in four regions — Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia — targeted by Putin would extend this timeline to February 2029.
Despite peace initiatives from Ukraine and the West, reports suggest that dictator Vladimir Putin has ambitious plans for the front lines in the coming years. According to Deputy Head of the Office of the President Pavlo Palisa, Russia aims to fully seize the Donetsk and Luhansk regions by 2025 and establish a buffer zone along its northern border. By 2026, Russia plans to occupy all territory to the east of the Dnipro River, effectively cutting Ukraine off from the Black Sea. Western media comment that this “dirty war” is only just beginning, reports 24brussels.
