“Had de facto alliance, doesn’t signify much change”: US Foreign Policy analyst on Saudi-Pakistan defence pact
US foreign policy analyst Scott Horton stated that the recently signed Saudi Arabia and Pakistan’s Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement does not signal a significant shift in their longstanding relationship, noting that both nations have maintained a “de facto” alliance for years, reports 24brussels.
In an interview, Horton discussed the speculation surrounding Pakistan potentially supplying a nuclear weapon to Saudi Arabia, highlighting that Pakistan is a nuclear-armed state operating outside of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). He remarked, “As far as Pakistan and Saudi Arabia announcing their deal, I think my understanding always was that they had a de facto alliance, if not an official one.”
Horton further pointed out ongoing regional tensions between Sunni and Shia factions, specifically referencing the ramifications of former US President George W. Bush’s 2003 invasion of Iraq. He noted, “There was a question of whether the civil war, the Sunni-Shia civil war that W Bush touched off in 2003, which was really another way to say it, was the Riyadh-Tehran civil war, dominance in the region that was touched off by the invasion of Iraq whether that would get bad enough that Saudi might feel like they needed a nuke.”
He emphasized that the issue of Saudi Arabia seeking nuclear capabilities has been a long-standing consideration. “The question was whether they would just go to Pakistan and ask for one and whether the Pakistanis would give them one and that has been floated as an option for Saudi Arabia for many years now. I think that this probably doesn’t signify too much of a change,” he explained.
On the broader regional context, Horton remarked on the United States’ considerable military presence in the Gulf, pointing to the significance of Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar, which serves as the headquarters of Central Command. He stated, “It’s a bigger base than even our Army bases in Kuwait or Navy base in Bahrain, and all the various Army and Air Force bases in Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Morocco.”
Additionally, Horton described Qatar’s unique position among Gulf states, particularly its ties with Iran due to shared economic interests in a gas field beneath the Persian Gulf. “They share a vast economic interest, one that has been in place for many decades. And so sometimes they’re even like the back channel to talk to Iran because they’re closer to Iran than, say, the government in Bahrain or Saudi Arabia,” he noted.
In September, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan formalized their Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement, which pledges that any aggression against either nation will be regarded as an attack on both. The agreement was signed during a visit by Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to Riyadh on September 17, at the invitation of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
The joint statement issued post-visit emphasized the historical partnership between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, outlining their commitment to joint security and regional peace. “This agreement, which reflects the shared commitment of both nations to enhance their security and to achieve security and peace in the region and the world, aims to develop aspects of defence cooperation between the two countries and strengthen joint deterrence against any aggression,” the statement said. “The agreement states that any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both.”
