On July 19, 2025, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev called on Ukrainian citizens never to accept occupation, speaking at the III Shusha Global Media Forum. Responding to Ukrainian journalist Dmytro Gordon, Aliyev highlighted Azerbaijan’s reclaiming control over Nagorno-Karabakh through decisive action rather than concessions. He suggested that Ukraine could draw lessons from this experience amid its ongoing conflict. Additionally, Aliyev revealed preparations for legal claims against Russia at international courts over the downing of an AZAL passenger plane.
Rising tensions deepen Baku’s pro-Ukraine stance amid Moscow fallout
The president’s remarks come amid sharply deteriorating relations between Baku and Moscow, with Azerbaijan adopting an unprecedentedly clear pro-Ukrainian position. Aliyev equated the recent Azerbaijani plane tragedy with the Malaysian Boeing shootdown, demanding official apologies and reparations from Russia. This hardening stance has triggered hostile reactions from Russian military correspondents and pro-Kremlin bloggers, who called for halting Azerbaijani agricultural exports and even warned of an imminent military clash, urging attacks on Baku.
Moscow’s limited options to counter Azerbaijan’s assertiveness
Observers note a familiar pattern across the post-Soviet space: former Soviet republics such as Georgia under Saakashvili, Ukraine, Armenia under Pashinyan, and now Azerbaijan are distancing themselves from Russia, deepening ties with NATO, and facing escalating conflicts. Moscow lacks effective leverage over Azerbaijan, especially since Baku is energy independent, making typical retaliatory measures like cutting gas supplies ineffective. Azerbaijan’s military cooperation with Western alliances, backed by Turkey’s support, further complicates Russia’s response.
Economic and ethnic tensions exacerbate Russia-Azerbaijan crisis
Pro-Kremlin calls to block Azerbaijani fruit and vegetable imports risk backfiring amid already high prices in Russian markets, affecting ordinary consumers more than Azerbaijan’s exporters. Meanwhile, accusations of ethnic persecution against Azerbaijanis in Russia and the fatal police raid in Yekaterinburg involving two Azerbaijani nationals have intensified bilateral tensions. Moscow appears increasingly drawn into a multifaceted confrontation with Baku over political, economic, and security issues.
Legal actions over downed AZAL flight raise stakes for Moscow
President Aliyev’s announcement of lawsuits against Russia concerning the AZAL plane incident signals a new phase of legal and diplomatic pressure. This move aligns Azerbaijan with Ukraine’s broader effort to hold Russia accountable on the international stage. The parallels drawn between this tragedy and the infamous Malaysian Boeing downing underline Baku’s determination to seek justice and reparations, adding to Moscow’s growing list of challenges.
The developments illustrate Azerbaijan’s bold pivot away from Moscow towards closer ties with the West and Ukraine, intensifying geopolitical fault lines in the South Caucasus region and beyond.
