New Study Warns of AMOC Collapse Risks
A recent study highlights an alarming possibility of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) reaching a tipping point this century, potentially leading to its collapse by 2100, reports 24brussels.
Researchers, including Sybren Drijfhout from the University of Southampton, described the Utrecht study as “solid.” Drijfhout, who was not part of that research, recently published his own study indicating a significant likelihood of AMOC decline under various emissions scenarios. The study projects that a high-emissions scenario could present a 70% chance for AMOC collapse, while a scenario aligned with current projections of a 2.7°C increase reflects a 37% risk.
Even under a low-emissions scenario compatible with the 2015 Paris climate agreement, aimed at limiting global warming to below 2°C, there remains a substantial 25% chance of a shutdown of the AMOC, according to the findings.
“As far as current models suggest, we conclude that the risk of a northern AMOC shutdown is greater than previously thought,” noted Drijfhout and his colleagues.
In response to the study, Dutch climate minister Rob Jetten expressed frustration over the diminishing priority of climate issues within European politics, despite the escalating threat posed by global warming. “There’s a sense out there that climate change has taken a backseat because we’re so busy dealing with [other] pressing concerns,” he stated.
Jetten emphasized that while progress may be slow and non-linear, the urgency remains: “So a big thanks to these scientists for giving us another serious climate wake-up call.”
