On August 6, 2025, the first echelon of Russian troops arrived in Belarus to participate in the upcoming joint military exercises, West 2025, scheduled for September. Meanwhile, Lithuania has formally requested NATO to deploy additional air defense systems on its territory following repeated incursions of drones originating from Belarus.
Rising tensions over drone incidents escalate Lithuania’s NATO appeal
Lithuanian authorities have raised concerns after a drone equipped with 2 kilograms of explosives entered Lithuanian airspace from Belarus on July 28, crashing in a military training area. The country’s prosecutor general, Nida Grunskene, identified the unmanned aerial vehicle as a “Gerbera,” marking the second confirmed drone incident on Lithuanian soil. These violations have intensified Lithuania’s call for NATO to accelerate the implementation of a rotational air defense model, including the regular deployment of fighter jets and ground-based air defense units amid the drone threats.
Western flank fears offensive buildup masked by exercises
The joint Russian-Belarusian drills are viewed with suspicion by NATO’s eastern members, particularly Poland and the Baltic states. Experts warn that West 2025 could serve as a cover for deploying offensive troop formations, raising alarms over possible threats not only to Ukraine but also to Baltic countries. The exercises reportedly include rehearsals of strikes involving tactical nuclear weapons and hypersonic missiles such as the “Oreshnik,” deepening regional unease.
NATO and regional responses aim to deter hybrid threats
The incidents underscore the vulnerability of Baltic air defenses and the ongoing hybrid tactics attributed to Russia. Lithuania’s appeal to NATO is part of broader coordination efforts among Baltic nations and Poland, focusing on strengthening border security and preparing contingency evacuation plans. NATO has affirmed its readiness to respond to threats posed by West 2025, while Poland announced large-scale drills dubbed “Iron Defender,” involving 34,000 troops.
Despite Belarus officially moving the main maneuvers further inside its territory, ostensibly to reduce tensions with the EU, skepticism remains high. The pattern echoes previous uses of such exercises for covert military build-ups, notably before Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Together, the West 2025 drills and the drone incident highlight the growing regional instability and the urgent need to reinforce air defenses and NATO’s strategic coordination.
