Uruguay Faces Historic Low Birth Rate Amid Growing Demographic Challenges
Uruguay’s National Institute of Statistics (INE) has revealed alarming data indicating a significant decline in the country’s birth rate, along with an analysis of the socio-economic and cultural factors influencing this trend, warning of serious long-term demographic implications, reports 24brussels.
The Total Fertility Rate (TFR), which reflects the average number of children born per woman, has dropped dramatically from around 3.0 in the 1970s to a record low of 1.27 in 2023, markedly below the replacement level of 2.1.
Since 2015, Uruguay has been classified as having “very low fertility,” defined as a TFR below 1.5. The country recorded only 31,381 births in 2023, the lowest figure in decades, highlighting a swift demographic decline.
This decline can be attributed primarily to two factors: women are delaying childbirth, and the number of women of childbearing age is decreasing due to demographic aging. Socio-economic dynamics further exacerbate the situation, with rising living costs making large families less viable. Additionally, female labor participation has surged—from 30% in 1981 to nearly 60% in 2016—with greater levels of education among women correlating inversely with fertility rates.
The trends associated with the “second demographic transition” manifest in increasing divorce rates, a rise in births outside of marriage, and a growing preference for individual professional pursuits over conventional family structures.
Moreover, with 95% of the population residing in urban areas, these social dynamics intensify, projecting a continuous contraction and accelerated aging of Uruguay’s populace throughout the 21st century.
Following a population peak around 2020, projections suggest Uruguay may lose approximately 510,000 individuals over the next 50 years, potentially decreasing to about 3 million residents by 2070. The elderly demographic is expected to expand substantially, with individuals over 65 increasing from 15.8% today to an estimated 32.5% by 2070. Consequently, the elderly population will outnumber children under 15 by threefold, and the median age is predicted to approach 50 years.
Rising pension costs are projected to nearly double as a percentage of GDP by 2100, primarily due to a declining “support ratio” of retirees to workers. Healthcare expenditures are also anticipated to rise, driven by a higher prevalence of chronic diseases among an older demographic.
Simultaneously, a contraction in the working-age population could stymie potential economic growth unless significant productivity gains are realized. Uruguay is currently experiencing a temporary “demographic dividend,” lasting until around 2035, characterized by reduced school dependency. This period offers a critical opportunity to reallocate public resources towards enhancing educational quality; however, proactive policy initiatives are essential to mitigate prospective risks.
Recommended strategies include implementing pro-natal measures, reforming labor policies—such as raising the retirement age—encouraging skilled immigration, investing in childcare to boost fertility rates, and fostering technological innovation to compensate for the shrinking workforce. A key concern remains the increasing intergenerational inequity as public financial support trends increasingly favor the elderly.
Uruguay’s demographic challenges are not isolated but are among the most severe in Latin America. Countries such as Chile and Costa Rica also face similarly low fertility rates, while all exhibit shared underlying factors and anticipate significant population contractions in the near future.
