Russian Military Drills Raise Concerns Near NATO Borders
Military exercises in Belarus and Kaliningrad have prompted heightened vigilance among NATO allies, with significant troop movements expected near Poland and Lithuania. The drills, known as Zapad, will occur close to pivotal areas like the Suwałki Gap, a critical corridor perceived as one of Europe’s most vulnerable defense points, reports 24brussels.
Lithuania’s military intelligence estimates that approximately 30,000 soldiers will participate in these exercises, a stark decrease from the 2021 Zapad drills that involved around 200,000 troops. However, experts warn that even this number is insufficient for a large-scale offensive against a NATO member, particularly amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, according to military analyst Janeliūnas.
Despite the reduced scale of these exercises, the potential for provocations remains. Moscow may leverage the drills to assess NATO’s response to various scenarios, including airspace intrusions, cyberattacks, or sabotage of civilian infrastructure, thereby evaluating the speed and nature of alliance reactions.
Heightened Risk of Escalation
The possibility of misinterpretation during these drills is a significant concern. “Certain coinciding signals could be mistaken for an actual attack on NATO countries,” Janeliūnas warned. “During military exercises, where weapons are prepared, it can be challenging to differentiate between simulation and real military action.”
Nonetheless, Lithuanian officials maintain a confident stance regarding threat assessment. Godliauskas stated, “We have the ability to observe and respond, and to distinguish between an accident and a real threat.”
However, he acknowledged that while monitoring capabilities are robust, “it’s unrealistic to expect a zero probability of air incursions.” A recent incident involved two drones entering Lithuanian airspace from Belarus in July, leading the country to impose restrictions on air traffic along its border with Belarus until October 1.
